Gachagua's best chance of beating Ruto in 2027 is backing Opposition candidate - TIFA

In the latest survey done by TIFA, the research examined Kenya's current political landscape ahead of next year's General Election, focusing on public perception of the broad-based government, the preferred Opposition candidate and the most preferred presidential candidate.

According to the poll, 14 per cent believe that the former Deputy President should be allowed to contest and lead the opposition ticket. 

Five per cent suggested that President Ruto will emerge victorious regardless of the opposition candidate. 

The survey shows that President Ruto maintains a lead of the majority vote as opposition support is dispersed across multiple candidates. Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has recorded the fastest rise among opposition figures, increasing from no support in 2025 to 15 per cent in June 2026. 

This has positioned him as the leading opposition candidate followed by Jubilee's Fred Matiang'i at 14 per cent and Wiper's Kalonzo Musyoka at 13 per cent. 20 per cent are still undecided over their preferred presidential candidate. 

President Ruto retained most of his support in the Northern region, while Sifuna led in Western, Matiang'i in Nyanza, Kalonzo in Lower Eastern, and Gachagua in the Mt Kenya region.

"While President Ruto is currently the most popular potential (n his case, the only certain) presidential candidate (as of now), his standing at only one-quarter of Kenyans (24%) – though not necessarily registered, let alone likely, voters - suggests that the Opposition has considerable opportunity in next year’s election," the survey indicated. 

The poll revealed that nearly twice as many Kenyans oppose the Broad-Based Government (52 per cent) as compared to those supporting it (30 per cent). 

The survey also found that 17 per cent of Kenyans had not registered as voters. The main reasons cited were a lack of the required documents, insufficient time to register and a lack of interest in voting or politics.

Among those aged 18 to 24 years, half said they had not registered because they did not have a national ID. Meanwhile, respondents aged 45 years and above cited administrative challenges during the voter registration process as the main obstacle.

The TIFA survey sampled 2,048 respondents across nine zones including Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western. 

The survey was conducted between June 13 and June 22, 2026.