OPINION: Four reasons Sudan rejected a President Ruto-led peace process

Sudan is embroiled in a bitter, existentialist war between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his former deputy Mohamed Dagalo. Here are four reasons why the al-Burhan regime has rejected President Ruto as the lead mediator.

First, choosing Salva Kiir over Ruto allows the al-Burhan faction to have a mediator they know well and can manipulate to further negotiations to their advantage.

South Sudan has its own civil war and realistically, has no business putting out small fires in other countries when South Sudan is facing an inferno.

President Salva Kiir has proven a ruthless pragmatist. A transactional ruler that can cut a deal with al-Burhan to undermine Mohamed Dagalo, in return for material support for Kiir in his rivalry with Riek Machar in Juba, South Sudan.

Second, rejecting Ruto delegitimizes the IGAD Quartet of Nations put together to advance a diplomatic settlement to the civil war.

It also has the potential to divide the quartet as a negotiating coalition. This is especially true if Ruto is replaced by a different person from another state like Kiir.

Third, the general is fearful for his freedom. Al-Burhan is fearful of being taken to the Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity like former president Omar al-Bashir if he loses control of the diplomatic process and civilians control the government.

The government in Sudan could also see the bitter civil war that is resulting in a worsening humanitarian crisis, as a bargaining tool to blackmail the international community into settling for an abnormal normalcy.

That is to say, accept the imperfect reality of having to sacrifice democracy for order. This would happen by allowing al-Burhan to retain power.

The al-Burhan regime in Khartoum is using war as diplomacy by other means. For both generals in this conflict, the end justifies the means. Prepare for a long and bloody war in Sudan, particularly with global attention focused on Ukraine.

Lastly, the al-Burhan administration is livid that President Ruto accepted to receive Mohamed Dagalo's representative Yusuf Ezzat in Nairobi.

Ruto’s meeting with Ezzat provided de facto recognition to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its leader Mohamed Dagalo from Kenya.

It gives legitimacy to the RSF faction and strengthens its hand at the bargaining table. It defeats al-Burhan's caricature of Dagalo and the RSF as a rouge rebel militia.

Ruto’s welcome to Yusuf Ezzat, the RSF representative, made the RSF appear as an equal player to the al-Burhan administration in Khartoum hence providing the rebel faction critical diplomatic leverage.

Things look like they will get a lot worse in Sudan before they get better. For Sudan’s sake, I hope time proves otherwise.

Prof. David Monda teaches political science, international relations and foreign policy at the City University of New York @dmonda1, www.davidmonda.com