'Squid Game' is a huge hit. That may not be enough for Netflix
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For much of this
year, Netflix shares have trailed big tech rivals Facebook, Apple and Amazon.
That's no longer the case, in part because of the global mega-hit "Squid
Game."
Netflix's stock
was in the red for 2021 as recently as August. Investors worried it may have
lost its mojo as consumers flocked to newer streaming platforms like Disney+,
Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+, Paramount+, Peacock and HBO Max, which is owned
by CNN parent WarnerMedia.
But Netflix, which
will report earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday, has enjoyed a massive
turnaround in the past few months as users became addicted to South Korea's
"Squid Game."
The drama about
game show participants trying to survive dangerous contests has
created much needed buzz — and viewers — for Netflix since its global
premiere in September. Netflix told CNN Business exclusively this
month that 117 million accounts have watched the show since its debut.
Netflix's stock is
now up 17% this year, better than Apple and Amazon and roughly in line with
Facebook's year-to-date rise. Shares in Google owner Alphabet have
soared 60% in 2021, making it the best performer of the FAANG grouping of elite
tech stocks.
Netflix is also
outperforming the company's traditional media rivals: Disney, Paramount+ parent
ViacomCBS, Peacock's Comcast and WarnerMedia owner AT&T.
The question for
Wall Street though is whether "Squid Game" will lead to even greater
financial success for Netflix.
Analysts expect
that third quarter revenue rose 17% from a year ago to $7.5 billion and that
net income soared 47% to $1.2 billion, or $2.56 a share, according to forecasts
tracked by data provider Refinitiv.
But the number
investors will be watching most closely is Netflix's subscriber count. The main
reason that Netflix's stock stalled earlier this year was due to concerns about
slowing user growth.
Wall Street is
estimating that Netflix added about 4 million subscribers in the third quarter,
for a total of 213.3 million worldwide.
The company's
guidance will be key too. Analysts are predicting an even bigger surge in users
in the fourth quarter — an increase of more than 8 million to 221.4 million.
Netflix's stock
typically thrives or dives after earnings because of the company's subscriber
outlook. And there may be added pressure on the company to deliver a bullish
forecast.
That's because
many analysts are extremely upbeat on Netflix's stock. Of the 45 who cover the
company, 33 have buy ratings on the shares. If Netflix's outlook disappoints,
the stock could suffer a fate almost as violent as unlucky losers on
"Squid Game."
Tougher competition for
Tesla?
Elon Musk's
electric car giant is expected to report strong third quarter results after the
closing bell Wednesday. Analysts are forecasting a nearly 55% surge in sales
for Tesla, to $13.5 billion. Wall Street also is predicting a profit of $1.6
billion, almost double a year ago.
Investors have
rewarded Tesla's success. The stock is up more than 15% in 2021 and the company
is now worth $820 billion, making it the sixth most valuable company in the
S&P 500.
But as impressive
as that sounds, Wall Street is also starting to think that traditional
automakers will soon eat into Tesla's electric vehicle dominance.
Detroit rivals GM
and Ford have both recently pledged to invest even more in the
EV market. Shares of GM have soared nearly 40% this year while
Ford's stock has skyrocketed more than 75%.

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