Race for influence: Will Somalia become next arena of regional rivalry?

The interests of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Iran, alongside those of other international powers, increasingly converge in a region that serves as a strategic gateway for global trade and maritime security, even as its states continue to struggle with weak institutions, political divisions, and armed conflicts.

In Somalia, this rivalry comes at a time when the federal government faces mounting domestic challenges amid criticism from opposition groups over the performance of state institutions, corruption, and political disputes.

As a result, any expansion of foreign military assistance has become the subject of broad debate regarding its potential impact on the country's internal balance of power.

Against this backdrop, a Saudi military delegation visited two government training camps in the Guri El area of Galgadud Region on June 29, 2026, as part of a Riyadh-funded program to train more than 5,000 Somali soldiers.

The training is being conducted by foreign military experts from several countries.

Analysts argue that expanding security force-building programs in politically fragile states could, in the absence of broad national consensus, evolve into an instrument of regional competition for influence rather than serving solely to strengthen state institutions, particularly given the growing number of regional actors engaged in overlapping security and military affairs across the Horn of Africa.

Observers note that the rivalry among these powers extends beyond Somalia to other regional dossiers, including Sudan, where the interests and roles of several countries intersect, reflecting the widening struggle for influence across the Red Sea basin and the Horn of Africa.

Experts warn that sustained regional competition within fragile states could further weaken national institutions and prolong existing crises if external support becomes driven more by geopolitical calculations than by the priorities of state-building and political stability.

While Somalia requires international assistance to strengthen its security institutions and address ongoing security challenges, the greater test lies in ensuring that the country does not become an open arena for regional power competition, a development that could deepen internal divisions and delay the long-term process of state-building.