Nairobi Governor race: Babu Owino still leads as Agnes Kagure gains traction

Embakasi East Member of Parliament Babu Owino remains the frontrunner in the race for the Nairobi governorship, but businesswoman Agnes Kagure is steadily closing the gap, according to a new opinion survey by the Centre for African Progress (CAP).

The survey, conducted between July 11 and 16 among 4,500 respondents across Nairobi's 17 constituencies and 85 wards, places Babu at 36 per cent, ahead of Kagure's 32 per cent, while incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja trails at 11 per cent.

Milton Lucheri garnered 10 per cent, James Gakuya 7 per cent, with 4 per cent of respondents remaining undecided.

On party popularity, Rigathi Gachagua's Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) emerged as the most popular political party in Nairobi with 28 per cent support. ODM ranked second with 15 per cent, followed by President William Ruto's UDA with 14 per cent in third place.

Agnes Kagure's Kenya People's Party (KPP) garnered 12 per cent, while the National Economic Development Party (NEDP), associated with former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko, registered 11 per cent. Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper Patriotic Front followed with 9 per cent, while DAP-Kenya and Ford Kenya each attracted 2 per cent support.

With only 4 per cent of voters yet to make up their minds, the survey suggests that any major shift in the contest is likely to come from realignment of support among candidates rather than undecided voters.

The poll also paints a grim picture for Governor Sakaja, whose re-election prospects appear constrained by low public approval ratings.

According to the survey, 84 per cent of respondents disapprove of the job he has done as Governor, compared to just 10 per cent who approve, while 6 per cent expressed no opinion.

An analysis of constituency-level data shows that Babu's support is concentrated in several traditional strongholds, including Embakasi East, Embakasi West, Westlands, Dagoretti North, Kibra, Lang'ata and Mathare.

Kagure, on the other hand, enjoys stronger backing in Starehe, Makadara, Ruaraka, Roysambu, Kasarani, Embakasi South, Dagoretti South and Kamukunji, underlining her growing appeal across key voting blocs in the capital.

The survey further notes that Nairobi's gubernatorial race is likely to be shaped by candidates' grassroots mobilisation, youth engagement and their ability to articulate solutions to urban challenges such as service delivery, the cost of living, infrastructure, waste management and security.

Researchers observed that while Babu remains the candidate to beat, the race remains fluid and could change significantly as political parties settle on their flag bearers ahead of the 2027 General Election.

They also note that the number of contenders is expected to reduce after party nominations, a development that could reshape the dynamics of the contest.

The opinion poll was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 4,500 respondents across Nairobi County.