Kofi Annan Foundation warns of high risk of violence in 2027 elections

The new Electoral Vulnerability Index by the Kofi Annan Foundation says Kenya has never gone through a single election cycle without violence.

The report estimates an 84.1 per cent probability of electoral violence during the 2027 General Election.

It also places Kenya among 10 countries identified as priorities by the European Union during this election cycle, alongside Somalia, Burundi, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Africa.

The country witnessed its bloodiest post-election violence in 2007-2008, when more than 1,000 people were killed.

But the years since have followed their own violent rhythm, with unrest extending beyond election periods into disputes over economic and governance issues.

Since 2023, protests over finance bills, the high cost of living, police brutality and, more recently, fuel price hikes have left dozens dead, hundreds injured and millions of shillings worth of property destroyed.

The Electoral Vulnerability Index says this matters for 2027 not only because of what has already happened, but also because of what has changed.

The death of opposition leader Raila Odinga in October last year has left Kenya's opposition without its most recognisable figure. The report says this could cut both ways: a weaker and more predictable opposition, or a scramble for succession that produces new alliances the government has never had to negotiate with before.

Combined with the public anger witnessed over the past two years — driven by fuel prices, the cost of living and unresolved killings — the report warns that the 2027 election could become more than an ordinary political contest. It could also become a platform for citizens demanding accountability.

The report identifies three key institutions as critical to preventing a repeat of past electoral violence: the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the National Police Service and the Judiciary.

It says the transparency with which the IEBC procures voting technology will determine whether Kenyans trust the results it announces. The police's handling of protests and protection of human rights will also influence how peaceful the elections will be.

The Judiciary is also identified as a key stabilising institution, particularly the Supreme Court, which resolved the disputed 2022 presidential election. However, the report cautions that this avenue will only remain effective if all parties preserve evidence and accept the court's rulings, even when they disagree with the outcome.