Kenya set for steady growth amid global uncertainty - Report

The Mastercard Economics Institute’s 2026 Economic Outlook says Kenya is well placed to sustain economic momentum despite a challenging global environment.

The report highlights solid domestic demand, expanding digital inclusion and more diversified trade relationships as key strengths.

As global supply chains reorganize, Kenya is increasing trade with emerging markets in Asia and the Middle East.

The removal of import duties on most African goods by China is expected to open new export opportunities for Kenyan producers, helping cushion the economy from external shocks.

Inflation pressures are forecast to remain moderate, supported by a weaker US dollar and lower energy prices. This could give the Central Bank room to ease interest rates and support growth. 

The report also notes that small and medium-sized enterprises remain critical, with digital tools and technology helping businesses cut costs, improve efficiency and compete more effectively.

Digital transformation, including the adoption of artificial intelligence, alongside infrastructure investment, is expected to further strengthen productivity and long-term growth.

Globally, the institute expects economic growth to ease slightly in 2026, with lower inflation and continued expansion driven by technology.

While trade fragmentation poses risks, rising AI adoption and flexible economies are expected to support global growth, even as gains remain uneven across regions.