ICPAC warns of above-normal rains in March–May season

Kenya is among the countries expected to experience wetter-than-normal rainfall during the March to May (MAM) 2026 long rains season, according to the latest regional climate outlook by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).

In its outlook released on Tuesday following the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 72) held in Nairobi, ICPAC said central to western Kenya is likely to receive above-average rainfall, while coastal parts of the country are expected to experience drier-than-normal conditions.

The forecast indicates a 45 per cent probability of wetter-than-normal rainfall over large parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, including central and western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia and Djibouti.

At the same time, a 40 per cent probability of near-normal rainfall is expected over north-eastern and south-western Kenya, western and eastern South Sudan, most parts of Somalia, coastal Tanzania and isolated areas of Uganda and Ethiopia.

ICPAC noted that while the seasonal outlook points to generally favourable rainfall conditions, dry spells may still occur in areas forecast to receive near-normal or above-normal rainfall, while wet spells may occur even in areas forecast to receive near-normal or below-normal rainfall.

“Normal to early onset of rains is expected over most parts of the region, while delayed onset is forecast over localised areas of Ethiopia, South Sudan and Somalia,” ICPAC said.

Beyond East Africa, the outlook shows that much of the Greater Horn of Africa region is likely to experience enhanced rainfall during the MAM season, a development that could support agriculture and water availability but also raises the risk of flooding in vulnerable areas.

On temperatures, ICPAC warned that warmer-than-average conditions are expected over most parts of the region, with higher probabilities over Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya. Cooler-than-average temperatures are expected over parts of central to northern Ethiopia.

ICPAC Director Dr Abdi Fidar said the forum remains critical in supporting early action across the region.

“GHACOF remains a critical regional platform for building consensus on climate risks and translating seasonal forecasts into early action that protects lives, livelihoods and development across the Greater Horn of Africa,” he said.

Kenya Meteorological Department Director Edward Muriuki, who was also present, emphasised the role of early warning systems in managing climate risks.

“Early warning services are critical in mitigating climate risks, providing timely information that enables governments, communities and institutions to prepare for and respond effectively to climate-related hazards,” he said.

Principal Secretary for Environment and Climate Change, Dr Eng. Festus K. Ng’eno underscored the importance of climate services in decision-making, saying, “Climate services, when timely, credible and user-driven, provide a powerful bridge between climate science and practical actions that protect lives, livelihoods and support sustainable development.”

ICPAC has urged governments, humanitarian agencies and development partners to use regional forecasts alongside national and sub-national outlooks issued by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, and to scale up preparedness measures to minimise potential flood and drought impacts.

The GHACOF 72 forum brought together representatives from 11 countries in the Greater Horn of Africa, alongside experts from agriculture, water, health, disaster risk management, climate change and humanitarian sectors.