By-election victories won't decide 2027 polls, says KMPDU chair Mwachi

The Kenya Medical Practitioners, Pharmacists and Dentists Union (KMPDU) National Chairman Dr. Abidan Mwachi has cautioned political leaders against reading too much into recent by-election victories, arguing that such contests are not reliable predictors of the outcome of the 2027 General Election.

Speaking during an interview on Tuesday, Mwachi said Kenya's political history shows that success in by-elections does not necessarily translate into victory in a general election.

He noted that the country has witnessed numerous by-elections over the years, but only those held in the run-up to the 2002 General Election closely mirrored the eventual national outcome, when the then-ruling KANU lost power to the opposition.

"We may be celebrating victory in one constituency today, but Kenya has had many by-elections in the past. By-elections do not fully indicate how a general election will turn out, so no one should beat their chest and claim they are now the most popular," he said.

Mwachi cited the period leading up to the 2013 General Election, noting that former Prime Minister Raila Odinga's camp won the majority of by-elections after the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution but still lost the presidency after the formation of the Jubilee coalition.

He argued that Kenya's political landscape has since shifted, particularly following the Gen Z-led anti-government protests witnessed in 2024.

According to Mwachi, the demonstrations signalled a decline in the influence of traditional ethnic kingpins, with voters increasingly prioritising economic concerns over tribal political alignments.

"What we learnt from the Gen Z protests is that politics centred around tribal kingpins has become outdated," he said.

He added that Kenyans are not primarily driven by whether particular individuals hold or lose public office, but by the state of their livelihoods.

"The issue uniting Kenyans today is their cooking pots and their pockets. The vote in 2027 will begin with the pockets of Kenyans; they are looking at the economy," Mwachi said.

His remarks come amid heightened political activity across the country as parties seek to consolidate support following a series of by-elections and shifting alliances ahead of the 2027 General Election.

This as former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s new Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) is still in celebration mode following a resounding victory in the hotly contested Ol Kalou by-election held last week.

DCP’s Sammy Kamau Ngotho was declared the winner after garnering 35,440 votes, defeating the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Samuel Muchina Nyaga, who received a paltry 5,450 votes.