OPINION: Diaz - The future of trains and global transport, trends and international impact

By Chris Diaz

Since the invention of the steam energy in the early 19th century, trains have played a very significant role in human mobility and commerce.

From the rapid rail development in Britain and Europe, and thereafter North America and parts of European colonies in Asia and Africa, railways enabled industrial societies to move people, raw materials and manufactured goods efficiently, fostering urbanization and economic integration in the process. Today, rail transport continues to be central to the global movement of people and goods.

Today, electric high-speed trains serve hundreds of millions of passengers every year and according to the International Union of Railways (UIC), rail transport accounts for over 10% of all passenger transport globally, with electric trains dominating the high-volume corridors in Europe, China, and Japan.

China alone accounts for over 45,000 km of high-speed rail lines, moving more than 2.5 billion passengers each year while the European Union has expansive networks linking cities across Europe. France’s TGV, Germany’s ICE, and Spain’s AVE are some well-known examples of rail transport in Europe.

Rail also plays a critical role in freight logistics especially in large continental economies like the United States, Canada, Russia, and China, where cargo trains transport massive volumes of coal, minerals, food, electronics, and consumer goods. In the U.S. alone, freight rail accounts for about 28% of total cargo movement by ton-miles.

Globally, the rail sector contributes trillions of dollars in economic output and in 2023, the global rail transport market was valued at over $590 billion with various projections estimating growth to over 820 billion dollars by 2030.

Rail transport however still faces some challenges including the high cost of the initial investment required upfront to build the infrastructure.

This continues to be a major barrier especially in developing countries that still have underdeveloped rail networks. Old networks also require costly upgrades to accommodate faster, more efficient electric trains.

Air travel dominates long-distance passenger transport, while trucking often undercuts rail freight in speed and flexibility for short hauls providing competition to rail transport. It's great to consider, while electric trains are environment friendly, the construction of large rail corridors can disrupt ecosystems and communities when not long term planned, and needs well thought executions.

Despite these challenges, the future of rail transport is exciting.  Electrification and the use of renewable energy is an example of high speed and bulk movement of people and cargo in a manner that does not degrade the environment.

Modern trains are increasingly being powered by electricity. New technologies, for example trains that save energy when they slow down (regenerative braking), train stations that use solar power, and trains that run on clean fuel like green hydrogen will help make trains much better for the environment by cutting down on pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

Technological advances now ensure that smart systems are helping trains run more safely and on time. Computers can watch train movements, fix problems before they happen, and even control some parts and create truly automated services navigating complex growth of train services.

Buying tickets is easier too, because it can be done on a phone or computer and a seamless way to grow travel and utilize technology as population and investments are increasing globally.

Another technological advancement is the Maglev trains, already in use in Japan and China. These are trains that use magnets to float above the rail tracks instead of touching them. This lets them move very fast—over 600 km per hour—and makes the ride quicker, smoother, and quieter.

The excitement of the future, is the ease and different ways of travel will be connected. Train stations will become smart centers where people can easily switch to buses, electric cars, bicycles, or even get things delivered by drones. The integration of intra and inter cities transport, will motivate trade, tourism and economic transformation in the regions.

And finally with the global concerns on environmental sustainability, new models of funding such as climate funds and public private partnerships are opening new avenues for less developed countries to get access to funding to invest in modern fast and green rail transport.

More investors are increasingly attracted to the rail sector, and multinational engineering giants like Siemens, Alstom, Hitachi, and CRRC are leading a wave of innovation and infrastructure development. New technology start-ups and tech firms are joining in, developing advanced software and other smart tools to improve the efficiency and safety of rail transport.

As the sector digitizes, business models are expanding beyond ticketing to include data monetization, energy savings, and other integrated travel services such as access to taxis and motorbikes through ride sharing apps like Uber and Bolt, bicycles and scooter rentals, on board wi-fi access, and entertainment among others.

Africa stands to benefit from this rail revolution. Though historically underdeveloped, Africa has is seeing renewed interest in modern safe rail systems as a catalyst for economic transformation. This includes investment to bridge the huge infrastructure.

Africa has fewer than about, 90,000 km of total rail lines, much of which is outdated and inefficient. Electrified high speed rail (HSR) can leapfrog old systems, link key cities and unlocking regional trade.

Already projects such as the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) in Kenya, the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway, Tanzania rail network, and Nigeria’s Lagos-Ibadan line show growing momentum. The African Union’s “African Integrated High-Speed Rail Network” (AIHSRN) ambitiously aims to connect all African capitals by 2063.

With African cities growing rapidly, efficient mass transit has now become critical. HSR could reduce road congestion, cut travel times, and boost productivity across economic hubs like Lagos, Nairobi, Johannesburg, and Cairo and increase of exports and foreign currency business.

Rail construction and operations can create millions of jobs; engineers, technicians, station staff, and more while local manufacturing of components, railcars, and digital systems would boost local economies, international trade and develop industrial capacities.

More significantly, rail corridors in Africa will drastically lower the cost of moving goods across Africa’s landlocked economies, supporting the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and boosting intra-African commerce creating entrepreneurship and growth of employment of the youth.

Electric high-speed trains are not just a transportation mode, they are an engine of modernization, sustainability, and economic development and as the world restrategizes mobility in the face of climate urgency, rail is poised to become the backbone of future transport networks both to benefit public and private sector investments.

The future of rail transport is focused on increased sustainability, digitalization, and enhanced passenger experience. Digital technologies are transforming operations, while eco-friendly solutions like electrification is reducing environmental impact.

Technology is revolutionizing rail travel by prioritizing accessibility, comfort, efficiency and personalization. These advancements go beyond operational improvements, focusing on making every journey seamless, affordable and tailored to individual transport solutions.

Chris Diaz                                                                                                                                              Chairman, Adili Group                                                                                                                              X - @DiazChrisAfrica