Nairobi to host an unsustainable population of 10.4M people by 2050 - report

The survey by the global think tank Institute for Economics and Peace shows that Nairobi, which is currently home to 5.2 million people, will surpass the 10 million megacity threshold by mid-century and host about 10.4 million people.

This is a 101 per cent growth rate.

Globally, 14 cities are expected to add to the 33 already existing megacities, with the report placing a majority of the fastest-growing cities in sub-Saharan Africa.

Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam, currently home to 7.5 million people, is the world’s fastest growing city with an expected population of 16.4 million by 2050 (118% growth rate).

Behind Nairobi is Sudan’s Kahrtoum, with an 80 per cent projected growth rate, followed by Iraq’s Baghdad (71%) and  Angola’s Luanda (62%).

At the same time, however, ecological threats, infrastructure and security challenges that stem from rapid urbanisation will also rise, making the burgeoning urban growth unsustainable.

“Generally, they are in low-income, low-peace countries, meaning they simply don’t have the financial capacity to be able to cope with the growth,” the report says.

Existing environmental, social, political and economic issues, including higher concentrations of pollution, are also bound to increase, which in turn increases socio-economic differences, and puts pressure on infrastructure. 

“This is evident in many South Asian and African megacities, where those who can afford it, live in well-serviced neighbourhoods, while many live in overcrowded and under-resourced slums.

"These issues could directly impact societal and personal peacefulness as lack of job opportunities, hygiene, food and water, create a breeding ground for dissatisfaction which can stoke conflict,” adds the report.