How besieged presidents turn to Raila, Nyanza for a political lifeline

But the old man does not accept or move on, so he mobilises his supporters. Maandamanos aplenty, teargas, arrests, more teargas, the country comes to a standstill, the international community weighs in but Baba does not budge.

The winner is still talking tough, swearing that Baba is using protests to join the government. Baba says that is not the case and he does not want to be in government. The winner says he will not bow to Baba...

And then he does... A handshake is mooted lo and behold, Baba proves for the umpteenth time that he really is who he says he is.

Rinse and repeat.

Raila Odinga, the Enigma has proven for decades that he is the life jacket for any Kenyan president who finds himself politically marooned and wants to complete his term in peace.

This week, President William Ruto received a hero's welcome in Kisumu, Migori, Siaya and Homa Bay counties as part of his development tour of the Nyanza region.

Videos of thousands of jubilant Kenyans have shocked many because this is one of the toughest areas in the country to crack thanks to the "Raila Wall".

You do not just show up in Nyanza without Raila's "permission" and when he says it is OK for you to land there, you will be well received and your political career will be saved.

As the president's entourage weaved through the sea of humanity, euphoric residents jostled and pushed for space to catch a glimpse of the president.

From the disposition of both President Ruto and Deputy President Gachagua, they feel validated and appreciated after a long hiatus since they won the election and then the Gen Z pretests broke out and threatened their political careers.

DP Gachagua, looking quite enthralled said' “I did not know you are like this,” while the carnival mood engulfed their entourage in Migori County.

A local MP reminded his constituents that “this same Ruto was Baba’s right-hand man in ODM at the beginning, he supported Baba, why can’t we support him now?”

Interestingly, one observer mused that it looks more like Raila has negotiated his “solid” voting block for a deal which saw the state host a glittery international dignitary-filled symposium to launch his candidature for the Africa Union top seat earlier this week.

Letting the bygones be bygones…

President Ruto and Opposition leader Raila have been, for the longest time now, on the opposite axis of the Kenyan political divide.

Twice, as Ruto deputised Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila alleged foul play at the ballot. When eventually in 2022 Raila went head-to-head with Ruto, Raila lost and again, alleged foul play within the electoral body for his loss.

Many observers were however not lost on the fact that back in November 2021, Deputy President Ruto had his Nyanza tour hastily abandoned as stones rained on them from irate residents in the Kondele area of Kisumu City.

Up until late July, when President Ruto chose four members of the Azimio Coalition into his cabinet, a smooth and welcoming trip to the so-called 'Luo Nyanza' would have been near impossible.

However, all that changed as Ruto's political journey looked like it was headed into the wilderness.

The fact is, President Ruto encountered severe political setbacks occasioned by the organic Gen-Z protests that forced him to drop the controversial 2024 Finance Act and send his entire cabinet home.

It was a tumultuous and redefining moment for his presidency and government, a ground-shifting moment.

The administration was bruised and cornered, many were eager to remain neutral, and few came to its aid.

To add to the tumult, his principal assistant, the DP Rigathi Gachagua was all but pouting in a corner, looking scorned, dejected and abrasive.

He had been bullied by his juniors and had stood his ground saying he represents his people’s concerns and aspirations.

This is the same man, who had made it his entire personality to insult Mr Odinga and vow to never allow him at State House let alone the government.

Meanwhile, Raila, the veteran deal-maker went on with his life telling off Gachagua and saying he did not wish to be in government until he was.

Mr Odinga however refuses to acknowledge his part in Ruto’s government and would rather use euphemisms to couch the “handshake.”

In his own words, “Mimi sajaingia kwa serikali, hatukukubaliana na Ruto tuingie serikali ya mseto, hatuna mseto! Alikuwa anataka watu, nikamwambia chukua hawa watu wakusaidie…” Loosely translated to, “I am not in the government, I did not agree with Ruto to form a coalition government, there is no coalition! He wanted people to help him, and I told him to take his pick.”

Therefore, with these few words, President Ruto is once again the darling of Luo Nyanza where he is now treated with adulation and deference.

As the rudderless Azimio brigade keeps waxing hot and cold about dropping ODM from the fold; Martha Karua of Narc Kenya recently stated that these “handshake” aka “broad-based government” negotiations began last year.

Raila must have negotiated hard, fast and furiously for his cake in government and once settled, he pulled the rug off the feet of the Gen Z protestors.

President Ruto mooted his “broad-based government” which, to use his own words is a “mongrel kind of government” as was the case between Raila and Uhuru during the Jubilee government's second term.

Uhuru Kenyatta reaches out to Raila to steady the TNA ship

Less than a year after the 2017 General Election, the camaraderie and the tight bromance that had tied together UhuRuto were severed. All efforts to reconcile the two hit a snag.

The new Jubilee government needed to steady their ship and the Ruto faction was causing them nightmares in Parliament and public.

Raila marshalled his troops to offer support to the Kenyatta government and suddenly, Kenyatta, who Luo Nyanza had boycotted to vote for the 2017 repeat election, became a darling of the lakeside region as he toured with Raila to launch and inspect project after project.

Raila was in the inner circle of President Uhuru's government in his last term and indeed the “handshake” birthed the Building Bridges Initiative, a constitution change movement which, the Supreme Court later rendered null and void.

The reconciliatory deal became publicly known as the “handshake” between Raila and Uhuru. Ruto, left to his own devices, began to campaign very early much to the chagrin of Uhuru and the opposition.

Raila was now in government and those in government were now in the opposition. DP Ruto became more isolated and as time wore on it became clear he would have to chart his path to State House.

The Ruto faction went on an onslaught against President Uhuru and his newfound brother Raila. It was an effective campaign that left Uhuru and Raila with mud on their faces when they lost the August 2022 General Election.

Kibaki and Raila truce and the “Nusu-Mkate” government

Back in 2002, when Raila declared his “Kibaki Tosha” mantra, it soon became the opposition slogan alongside “yote yawezekana bila Moi” song.

This concerted unity of purpose helped them push Moi away from power. Raila was the King-maker and life looked calm and breezy.

However, shortly after Kibaki took over the reins of government, it became clear that all was not well in the ruling party, Narc.

Narc Party, which took Kibaki to power, had swallowed several independent parties and was proving tough to meet all constituent party expectations.

Meanwhile, those around Kibaki tried to consolidate and wield power from a small circle of insiders and soon corruption became their forte.

However, the Narc cohabitation was not rosy and the sign that they had reached a point of no return took place during the first constitutional referendum in 2005 when Kibaki and Raila parted into two different factions.

Raila’s faction, the Orange faction, was against the government-sponsored constitutional referendum; while the Kibaki government side, dubbed the Banana faction, supported the referendum and lost.

President Kibaki went into the 2007 General Election limping as the Raila Odinga faction, now aptly named the Orange Democratic Party, had Raila running against Mr Kibaki.

The campaigns generated loads of vitriol and ethnic bigotry in the run-up to the elections and this was the precursor to the Post-Election Violence witnessed after the Kivuitu-led electoral body announced Kibaki as the winner.

It took international intervention, led by former UN Secretary Kofi Annan, to get the warring parties to the negotiating table.

After much haggling and negotiation, Kofi Annan announced a government of National Unity (aka “Nusu Mkate”) which designated Kibaki as President and Raila as the Prime Minister.

The two, Kibaki and Raila shook hands publicly as a show of uniting for the sake of the country. Once more, Raila, by bringing in his constituency or block of voters was a part of a government that he was initially not involved in.

Raila folds his “Tinga Party” to join Moi in Kanu, Kanu implodes

The year was 1997, and Raila was a handful for the Moi government. Moi, president of Kenya from 1978 to 2002, ran a tight-fisted dictatorial regime that had no room or patience for the opposition and critics.

Many of his critics were jailed, detained, exiled or died under mysterious circumstances. Time after time, Raila’s run-ins with the Moi government would land him on the wrong side of the Moi administration.

In times past, President Moi had put Raila and his late father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga into detention without trial as he did to scores of other opposition stalwarts. The lucky ones flew out into exile, never to return.

In 1997, after vying under the auspices of his party, National Development Party (symbolized by a tractor) and losing, Raila had other ideas up his sleeve.

Before long, he had wormed his way into Moi’s inner circle and to the surprise of friends and foes, he declared his party would henceforth forge a close working relationship with the Kanu government.

Kanu, during this time, was suffering a legitimacy crisis and Raila’s foray into its ranks steadied the Kanu ship in the eyes of the public.

As 2002 edged near, it was obvious Moi was to pass the baton to the next generation and all of the Kanu bigwigs hoped to be the “chosen one”.

But Moi had one surprise before he exited the scene. To everyone’s consternation, his choice was Uhuru Kenyatta, a novice politician who only had one thing going for him, his last name.

Raila, as Kanu Secretary General led a mass walkout from Kanu together with dyed-in-the-wool Kanu diehards like former Vice Presidents George Saitoti and Kalonzo Musyoka. This marked the beginning of the end of Kanu as the ruling party.

Raila Odinga, with solid support from Nyanza, has always used this block as a venerable negotiating card to muscle his way into each successive government since 1997.

Nyanza has hence morphed into this beholden block of voters that put some wind into the tired sail cloth of flailing administrations which time after time, has offered at least four different administrations a semblance of life and vitality when they are on besieged.