Babu Owino, Dennis Waweru lead race for Nairobi Governor ahead of 2027 elections – New poll

Embakasi East Member of Parliament Babu Owino has emerged as the front-runner in the Nairobi gubernatorial race ahead of the 2027 General Election, according to a new poll by the Centre for African Progress (CAP).

The survey, conducted between March 6-9, 2025, shows Owino leading the pack with 38% of voter support.

The poll, which sampled 4,000 registered voters, places former Dagoretti South MP Dennis Waweru in second place with 31%, while incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja trails at 14%.

Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi and his Embakasi North counterpart James Gakuya rank fourth and fifth with 7% and 6%, respectively. A further 4% of voters remain undecided.

According to the study, Nairobians base their voting decisions on candidate appeal, tribal affiliations, and financial incentives.

Owino, known for his populist approach and youthful energy, has in recent times captured the attention of Nairobi’s electorate by positioning himself as a champion of the common mwananchi.

The study also found that 92% of Nairobians are unhappy with the manner in which the county is being run, while just 6% endorsed Sakaja’s leadership. Another 2% of the people who took part in the study were unsure.

While releasing the results of the study which covered a wide range of issues affecting the county, CAP Chief Executive Officer Onchari Oyieyo noted that the sample size of 4,000 used in the study is large enough to give a realistic picture of the sentiments of Nairobi voters regarding their leaders.

Infrastructure decay, economic struggles, and rampant corruption emerged as the top concerns for Nairobi residents, further explaining the Governor’s dismal approval ratings.

The report comes just weeks after former Prime Minister Raila Odinga threw his weight behind Sakaja, a move that sparked intense debate given the abundance of ODM-affiliated leaders who have been linked to the seat.

These include ODM Secretary General and current Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, as well as MPs Babu Owino and Tim Wanyonyi, who have all been viewed as strong contenders.

However, the survey results suggest that the endorsement has done little to change the perception Nairobians have of Sakaja’s leadership and general service delivery capability.