How Uhuru’s last budget compares to his first

The contrast mirrors increased spending pressure by the Jubilee administration across 10 years, a factor primarily driven by heavy capital infrastructure projects, higher wages and salaries and interest payments on external debt.

According to data from the National Treasury Budget Policy Statements, recurrent spending has for instance moved up by 182 per cent to Ksh.2.2 trillion from just Ksh.780.7 billion in his first.

Meanwhile, interest payments on debt have moved up 470 per cent to Ksh.687.9 billion to echo Kenya’s growing debt distress from interest payments alone.

The Treasury nevertheless continues to set higher revenue targets for the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) as it keeps up with an ever growing budget deficit.

Total revenues in the financial year commencing July 1 are for instance estimated at Ksh.2.4 trillion of which Ksh.2.1 trillion is ordinary revenue or collection from taxes.

In contrast, ordinary revenues were projected at a mere Ksh.947.8 billion in the 2013 budget with total revenues set at Ksh.1 trillion.

The growing deficit has nevertheless meant more borrowing with net borrowing having moved from Ksh.33.4 billion in 2013 to Ksh.846.1 billion projected in the 2022 budget estimates.

While total financing is nine per cent lower year over year from Ksh.929.7 billion last year, actual borrowing is likely masked by the projection of higher revenues in the year.

With KRA having consistently struggled to meet its revenue targets over the year, the Ksh.846.1 billion cap of net borrowing is likely to be broken by a higher budget deficit.

Nevertheless, the National Treasury is expected to announce new tax measures and proposals centred on growing collections by the tax man.

In the fiscal year closing June 30, the National Treasury is expected to collect Ksh.1.8 trillion in revenues.

The Treasury sees a bigger economy in the next year to support greater tax collections with GDP projected to top Ksh.14 trillion by June 2023 from the current estimates of Ksh.12.6 trillion.