With HIV rates climbing, Kenya races to meet 2030 AIDS-free target

\The Kenya AIDS Response Progress Report 2025 indicates a sharp increase in mother-to-child HIV transmission — now above 9 percent — marking the highest rise recorded in recent years.

Nairobi leads with the highest number of new adult infections, while several arid and semi-arid counties are reporting unprecedented numbers of infants being born with HIV.

For years, Kenya was celebrated as a continental success story in HIV management. However, new data from the Ministry of Health paints a sobering picture. Mother-to-child transmission rose from 7.3 percent in 2023 to 9.3 percent in 2024, nearly double the global target of 5 percent.

Even more concerning, eight counties — Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu, Garissa, Baringo, Marsabit and Kilifi — recorded transmission rates exceeding 20 percent, the highest in over 15 years. In these regions, one in every five infants born to HIV-positive mothers is infected at birth.

The National Syndemic Diseases Control Council (NSDCC) attributes the spike largely to low antenatal attendance and preference for home deliveries, particularly in northern Kenya.

Douglas Bosire – NSDCC: “The main driver in northern Kenya is extremely low antenatal care attendance and a strong preference for home deliveries.”

The council notes that failure to complete antenatal visits disrupts early treatment and prevention, leaving mothers and newborns vulnerable, especially during breastfeeding.

Bosire added: “Most do not complete the ANC process, and many babies end up contracting HIV during breastfeeding.”

While rural counties struggle with access, the capital Nairobi — home to the largest number of people living with HIV — now records the highest number of new infections nationally. More than half of all HIV cases are concentrated in just seven counties, though NSDCC notes that urban density contributes to the figures.

Bosire: “When compared to population size, the numbers still reflect the national prevalence rate of around 3 percent.”

Government agencies say they are adopting a whole-of-society approach to reverse the surge, with intensified focus on adolescents, young women and girls who remain disproportionately affected.

However, public health experts caution that the recent regression signals a wider breakdown in the HIV care continuum — one rooted in inequality, poverty, gender-based vulnerability and limited health access.

The NSDCC says Kenya will accelerate targeted interventions in high-risk regions, including tracing pregnant women, expanding antenatal care access and reducing mother-to-child transmission to 5 percent by 2027. But with just five years remaining to achieve the global target of ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030, the country is running against time.