Vision 2030 at 66%: What went wrong and what lies ahead?

As Kenya looks beyond Vision 2030 and begins to shape a new long-term development agenda, the government’s own scorecard puts implementation of the current blueprint at 66 per cent.

The inauguration of Vision 2030, 18 years ago, was meant to set Kenya on a growth trajectory anchored on three pillars: social, political and economic.

On the social pillar, the dream was to improve Kenyans' quality of life and create a more equitable and cohesive society by improving living standards through education, improved healthcare access, expanded access to clean water, sanitation and better housing.

On the political pillar, Vision 2030 hoped to establish stronger democratic institutions, good governance, greater accountability, national cohesion, equality and greater public participation.

“The political pillar was mostly about the implementation of the Kenyan Constitution. It was about the reforms that we needed to do in the institutions and legal policy that we needed to do; we have been able to do that," said the Chairperson, Vision 2030, Dr. Emmanuel Nzai.

Under the economic pillar, the country targeted 10 per cent annual GDP growth for 25 years.

Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), however, shows that the economy has grown at a range of 4 to 5 per cent every year since 2008, with highs of 8 per cent in 2010 and 7.1 per cent in 2021, the year after the COVID-19 pandemic hit Kenya and the globe.

“And there's a conversation which there is evidence to it from where we are as a country today. The targets that we put were very aggressive: 10 per cent GDP growth continuously that we have not achieved," Dr. Nzai said.

“We as the private sector, when you tell us that our turnover should increase 40, 50 times, we want to do business where there is wealth...” said Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KNCCI) President Erick Rutto.

On the implementation of key Vision 2030 flagship projects, the State Department for Economic Planning rates the achievement at 61 per cent.

“We have a number of flagship projects that we can talk about today which is laying the foundation of the Kenya we know of today. Lamu is part of the LAPSET project. New investment of an oil refinery is now targeting Lamu based on the foundation laid by Vision 2030," ICT PS John Tanui said.

Under the economic pillar of Vision 2030, the country expected to revolutionise its industrialisation and ensure that exports out of the country are finished products in the Special Economic Zones.

These were the sectors that were set to create 17,000 jobs by 2030.

“One of the shifts we needed to achieve as a country was to be export-oriented and Konza is already playing that role. We have investors who are coming looking at the Kenyan market, but they are looking at the global market, and they are leveraging on the other Vision 2030 projects," Tanui added.

At the Konza Technopolis, however, while basic infrastructure is visible, new industries or institutions remain limited.

The government says contracts have been signed for their establishment, with no clarity on the challenges that may be leading to slow implementation, 13 years since the groundbreaking of the technology city.

In the implementation of Kenya’s Vision 2030, key flagship programmes such as the Konza Technopolis were poised to be the solution to the country’s economic challenges, creating employment, attracting investors and, at the same time, contributing significantly to the GDP.

But 18 years down the line, the uninvested land remains bigger than the section of land that has been invested in.

The question that remains is whether this dream will be achieved in the next three and a half years, or whether it will remain a pipe dream.