The fading French power in West Africa and new quest for the East

As France and Kenya co-host the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi, there is an array of factors driving the new power projection and what the summit portends for Kenya and its diplomatic standing.

In a review of its relationship with its former colonies, the Elysée Palace has, since the turn of the decade, given up on its military and diplomatic footprint in West Africa, a region which hitherto provided the French with a fortress. 

As Paris turns its attention to Kenya and East Africa in a subsequent search for an alternative, analysts question the French rediscovery.

"It used to be a great power; it no longer is a great power. And the problems it has been having in West Africa, they needed to be countered somewhere. It needed some strategic country, well-located on the map, and Kenya happens to be that strategic country with a president who likes how the West thinks of him and other world powers,” says Historian Macharia Munene.

Compelled by military coups that swept the Sahel belt, France, the only ex-colonial power that maintained permanent military bases, in an abrupt reversal of its post-colonial policies, has shut military bases and operations in Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, the Central African Republic, and Niger. 

Meanwhile, Senegal, Gabon, and the Ivory Coast agreed on a withdrawal plan with the French government; in effect, France will remain with only one military base in Djibouti.

The flipside of the French forays embodies the 2026 G7 Summit in Évian, which presents Kenya with yet another platform on the world stage as the only invited African country, coming amidst a fluid geopolitical order.

“Macron was responsible for inviting him to go to the G7, and it is part of the deal. And it was done at the expense of South Africa, which initially had been expected, and then something happened, because South Africa had been questioning Israel, and you are not supposed to question Israel,” adds Munene.

A painful retreat from West Africa, post-Brexit Europe, strained transatlantic relations, and an uncertain domestic political environment - an endeavour to partner with Kenya - all form a delicate mix for Macron. The Nairobi summit offers a new frontier for France’s new sphere of influence.