Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi sweeps ODM support as TIFA poll shows 74% backing

The Linda Mwananchi faction of ODM has overtaken the party's traditional support base, enjoying 74% backing compared to the Linda Ground faction's 20%.

This is according to a TIFA opinion poll conducted between June 13 and June 22, 2026.

The survey shows that the Linda Mwananchi faction, led by Edwin Sifuna, James Orengo and Babu Owino, enjoys overwhelming support among ODM supporters, dwarfing the Dr. Oburu Oginga-led Linda Ground faction, which has opted to work within the broad-based government arrangement.

Nationally, Linda Mwananchi commands 74% support among ODM supporters, compared to 20% for Linda Ground.

Regionally, Linda Mwananchi enjoys 100% support in Lower Eastern, compared to 0% for Linda Ground. It also posts strong backing in Nairobi (79%), Mt. Kenya (89%), Western (89%), and the Central Rift (87%). The only region where Linda Ground records significant support is Nyanza, where it has 40%, although Linda Mwananchi still leads with 58%.

Nationally, 52% of respondents oppose the broad-based government arrangement, while 30% support it.

Support for the broad-based government is strongest in the Central Rift (47%), up from 32% in May but down from 60% in November 2025. Northern Kenya follows at 43%, down from 58% in May and 61% in November 2025, while Nyanza ranks third at 35%, down from 49% in May and 59% in November 2025.

Support is weakest in Mt. Kenya, where only 13% back the arrangement, down from 17% in May and 22% in November 2025. In Nairobi, support stands at 22%, down from 24% in May and 34% in November 2025. In the South Rift, support is 25%, down from 26% in May and 44% in November 2025.

TIFA data tracking opinion from May 2025 to June 2026 indicates that support for the broad-based government has largely stagnated at around 30%.

The poll also ranks ODM as the country's most popular political party with 20% support, ahead of UDA (17%). DCP follows with 12%, down from 15% in May but above 6% recorded in August 2022. Jubilee has 10% support, while Wiper stands at 7%. However, 28% of respondents say they do not identify with any political party, reflecting growing voter disillusionment.

In the presidential race, President William Ruto remains the country's most preferred candidate with 24% support.

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has recorded the fastest rise among opposition figures, climbing to second place with 15%. Dr. Fred Matiang'i of the Jubilee Party follows with 14%, while Kalonzo Musyoka is at 13%, down from 19% in May and 25% in November 2025.

Regionally, Ruto continues to dominate the Central Rift and Northern Kenya, Sifuna performs strongly in Nairobi and Western Kenya, Kalonzo retains his lead in Lower Eastern, while Matiang'i draws his strongest support from Nyanza and parts of Mt. Kenya.

The poll further suggests that 62% of opposition supporters believe unity should take precedence over individual political ambitions, with a majority saying a single united opposition candidate would have the best chance of defeating President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election.