Nairobi Governor race: Babu Owino leads, Agnes Kagure follows as Sakaja trails in new poll

The survey, conducted between April 14 and April 19, 2026, shows Babu Owino leading with 37 per cent support, closely followed by Kagure at 34 per cent.

Incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja trails with 10 per cent, while Embakasi North MP James Gakuya registers 7 per cent support.

Former Principal Secretary Irungu Nyakera and Kasarani MP Ronald Karauri each garnered 1 per cent, with 9 per cent of respondents remaining undecided.

According to CAP's CEO, Onchari Oyieyo, the current Governor has low chances of winning re-election, with the poll showing Sakaja’s approval rating standing at just 10 per cent, while 80 per cent of respondents disapprove of his performance.

The findings suggest a highly competitive race shaping up ahead of the 2027 General Election, with the opposition likely to have an upper hand if current trends persist.

Democracy for Citizens (DCP) Party, led by the former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, leads in popularity with 24 percent followed by United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 18 per cent. 

The study sampled 6,000 registered voters across Nairobi’s 17 constituencies, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.94.

Key issues expected to influence the gubernatorial contest include the economy, security and the strength of individual candidates, as political alignments continue to take shape.