Why Raila’s AU loss is a turning point for Kenya's political scene

The 38th Ordinary Session of the African Union (AU) Assembly in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, marked a significant political event, with former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga vying for the AU Commission Chairmanship. 

However, Djibouti’s Foreign Minister, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, emerged victorious. This report examines the election, Raila Odinga’s campaign and its impact on Kenyan politics.

Raila Odinga’s bid for the AU Commission Chairmanship was backed by at least 28 African nations. His campaign focused on strengthening the AU’s role in conflict resolution, economic integration, and advocating for Africa’s permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

Key Campaign Highlights:

• Diplomatic Engagements: Odinga toured multiple African countries, rallying support.

• Kenyan Government Support: President William Ruto, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia

Mudavadi, and over 100 MPs traveled to Addis Ababa to back his bid.

• Policy Focus: Odinga emphasized AU reforms, unity, and economic empowerment for

African nations.

The election saw Mahamoud Ali Youssouf win over Odinga and Madagascar's Richard Randriamandrato. Youssouf’s victory signals a shift in AU politics, where smaller nations are asserting their influence.

Factors Behind Raila’s Loss:

• Regional Power Struggles: Some African nations preferred a neutral candidate over a high-profile figure like Odinga.

• Francophone Influence: Djibouti’s victory highlights the strong backing from French-speaking African countries.

• AU’s Internal Politics: Behind-the-scenes negotiations played a crucial role in shaping the outcome.

Effects on ODM and 2027 Elections:

First, there’s the ODM Leadership Dynamics: Odinga’s return to Kenyan politics could reshape opposition strategies ahead of the 2027 elections.

There’s also the question of Raila’s Political Future: Some analysts speculate that he may reconsider running for the presidency or playing a kingmaker role.

AU’s Future Under Youssouf’s Leadership

a) West Africa’s Military Juntas

Several West African nations, including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, have experienced military coups in recent years. These juntas have defied AU principles on democracy and governance, leading to suspensions and sanctions. However, they remain defiant, even moving toward alliances that exclude the AU, such as the newly formed 'Alliance of Sahel States.' Youssouf will need to decide whether to take a hardline stance or negotiate for their reintegration into the AU.

b) Conflict in Eastern Congo

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been plagued by armed conflicts involving rebel groups such as M23. Despite AU peacekeeping efforts, violence continues, with Rwanda being accused of backing some rebel factions.

c) AU’s Economic and Trade Policies

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is supposed to boost intra-African trade and economic integration.

Youssouf must push for stronger policies that encourage African nations to open their markets and reduce trade barriers, ensuring Africa benefits from its vast economic potential.

Conclusion

While Raila Odinga did not secure the AU Chairmanship, his campaign solidified Kenya’s presence in African diplomacy.