OPINION: If only demonstrations solved public problems, Kenya would be a superpower

By Prof. David Monda

March 20th 2023 was framed as a day for public demonstrations by the Azimio coalition.

Today, failing government policy, declining provision of public goods, lack of public trust in state institutions, and the collapse of the social contract between the governing and the governed put Kenya in a precarious place just six months after the 2022 General Election.

The endless banter between the Azimio and Kenya Kwanza coalitions has led to a situation where Kenyans are fighting with fists on the streets rather than competing with ideas in parliament.

Azimio advances direct public action through demonstrations on the streets and Kenya Kwanza hits back with counter-demonstrations. If only demonstrations solved public problems, Kenya would be a superpower.  

Kenya suffers from a serious lack of leadership. An anaemic lack of sound public policy frameworks to solve the nation’s problems. At this time, Kenya’s external debt stands at almost $40 billion.

Unemployment, inflation, and the cost of living are consistently on the rise. These indicators are exacerbated by external debt obligations paid in dollars against a depreciating shilling.  Yet, rather than debate ideas and party frameworks to address these issues, leaders are engaged in endless power competition over elections that are well and truly passed and settled.  

If Kenya is to mature as a democracy, players in the political game have to learn that elections are anchored on contingent consent and bounded uncertainty. Contingent consent carries with it the implicit acceptance of the outcomes of those elections, win or lose.

Political players are afforded the opportunity to sell their party positions to the public, with the understanding that in a fair electoral environment, the results of elections will be respected. Losers also have the opportunity to use legal channels to seek redress for electoral malfeasance.  

Bounded uncertainty creates room for the voters to make a choice of leaders and policy platforms that doesn’t make the outcomes of elections forgone conclusions. Bounded uncertainty in elections provides for an environment where all participants have a fair chance of winning free, open and fair elections.

The challenge of elections in Kenya is tied to electoral denialism. Because losers of elections do not want to concede defeat, no election is free and fair unless the results go their way. This Trumpian style of electoral denialism creates an alternate reality for losers who fail to come to terms with the status quo. That they lost.

They refuse to take up their role as the loyal opposition in keeping the government of the day in check but instead fight tooth and nail for power sharing in government to keep them politically relevant.   

The result of this conundrum is the place Kenya finds itself today. A highly polarized polity with leaders on both sides of the political divide fervently confronting each other on the streets rather than confronting each other in parliament with policy-driven ideas that can transform the nation.

This puts the country on a perpetual campaign footing that solves no policy issues but further reinforces ethnic, class, regional and political cleavages. If demonstrations alone solved public problems, Kenya would be a superpower. Monday 20th, 2023 will be a wasted day if all that is enumerated, is demonstrations.  

Prof Monda teaches political science, international relations, and American government at the City University of New York (York College), New York, USA.