Why Raila is likely to lose AUC elections - Diplomatic Affairs Analyst Hashi

During an interview on Daybreak, Hashi weighed in on Raila's chances to clinch the seat after he was endorsed by the East African Community (EAC) States. 

The analyst, who previously worked as a spokesperson in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, speculated that the French government would interfere in the elections and influence the Francophone countries to unite and edge out Kenya's candidate. 

He touted Djibouti's candidate as the favourite to win the seat by a landslide during the elections to be held in Addis Ababa in February 2025. 

"What is important is to look at the context of the African continent and the states and how we expect they're going to behave towards Kenya's candidate, Mr Odinga. I think Raila Odinga will lose the AUC chair election in Addis Ababa. I'm the only one who thinks that.  I will be shocked if he even gets a slim majority. The candidate from Djibouti is going to win a landslide," he said. 

He referenced the 2017 AUC elections when then Kenya's candidate, former Foreign Affairs CS Amina Mohamed lost to Chad's Moussa Faki after seven rounds of voting.

During the elections, reports indicated that a last-minute change by Uganda, Djibouti and Burundi led to Kenya losing the seat. 

"The people in charge in these nations have fundamental influence from the metropol. The AU is divided based on these fundamental tectonic plates and one of the biggest influence of the AU is the French," Hashi noted. 

"I was spokesperson at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and we knew we were going to win and the French government intervened heavily in those elections and we lost. We even had the support of Djibouti, one of the people who stabbed us in the back in that elections. I think that is the same scenario that will happen in these elections. I think the French, Sahel areas and major states in Central Africa are going to stand up to candidature of Mr Odinga and say no," he added. 

The analyst questioned Raila's move to bid for the seat at a time when he is approaching his 80s, citing that the continent will need a vibrant and energetic person to drive Africa's agenda. 

"I think this is the wrong move for Raila. In a continent where 80 per cent of the people is under 25, whether it serves the interest of the continent for us to have a man retiring in his 80s and whether he will have the energy vitality and gusto and do the necessary issues to be done about our youth."

For the AUC seat, Raila will square it with Djibouti's Youssouf, Anil Gayan of Mauritius and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar. The winner will be required to secure 66 per cent of the votes, translating to 32 countries. 

While endorsing Raila, President William Ruto expressed confidence in the opposition leader's ability to lead the continent to achieving prosperity. 

"I present to you a visionary Pan-African, a bold and wise leader, a professional and technocrat as well as a towering statesman and veteran mobiliser for positive change. I am confident that he will give his utmost and do all it takes to make Africa proud and powerful," the president said.