There's a plan to keep Raila in AU to favour Ruto's chances in 2027, says Diplomacy Analyst Hashi

Hashi holds that Kenya's support for Odinga is politically motivated, adding that he is being kept at bay to facilitate President Ruto's easy sail to the presidency in the 2027 polls.

Speaking to Citizen TV on Wednesday, he argued that Odinga's chances to clinch victory will remain slim because domestic politics only hands the former legislator the short end of the stick.

"The old man has gone into a coalition with the President and there is a political plan to make sure that Mr. Odinga is in the AU so that there is an open field for the president to wiggle politically when the elections come," he said.

Hashi further reiterated that continental political and cultural differences will deny Odinga victory in the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson seat.

He believes that the divide between North, South and Central Africa will heavily disadvantage Odinga as historical voting patterns will see Heads of State voting in favour of Odinga's competitors.

"The international community and the African continent are going to stack themselves against the Kenyan candidate and vote against him because of certain reasons," he said.

Odinga is facing Madagascar's Richard Randriamandrato (65) and Djibouti's Mohamoud Youssouf (60).

The next candidate will be succeeding Chad's Moussa Faki who will exit after his two-term tenure which started in 2017.

The electoral process is set to begin on February 12 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia where the Executive Council will elect and appoint Commissioners during their session on February 12-13, 2025.

A winner will be declared when a two-thirds majority of Heads of State from the 55 AU member states vote in their favour.

Meanwhile Odinga, with President Ruto's help, has rallied other leaders to deliver victory for the former premier. 

An analysis of their past diplomatic tours reveals that 19 African heads of state have pledged their support for Odinga.