Sudan Conflict: Has Kenya, the 'arbitrator' stepped out of line?

This did not happen as they would postpone the unveiling of the political charter. Come February 20, the group sent a press conference invite ostensibly to make a formal announcement of the same. This did not happen yet again.

The promised press conference ran cropper when the RSF-led group was a no-show the whole day. It was later confirmed to the press that it been postponed to a later date. All this was done presumably with the blessings of the government of Kenya.

Is Kenya an aggressor or arbitrator?

The diplomatic happenings in Nairobi have raised questions about Kenya’s position in the conflict in Sudan.

This prompted the government response, through the Cabinet Secretary (CS) for Foreign Affairs Musalia Mudavadi, that RSF’s roadmap was aligned with Kenya’s principles of mediation and that RSF was leveraging good offices to be found in Nairobi.

The CS dared remind Sudan that Kenya mediated between Sudan and breakaway South Sudan back in the day and that it was simply staying true to colour.

However, the Sudan Foreign Ministry would have none of it. It did not take this affront from Nairobi lying down and rejected the defence given on behalf of the Kenya government by CS Mudavadi.

“There is no justification for Kenya’s actions and President Ruto’s embracing of the RSF.” “This hostile and irresponsible move cannot be justified by referring to the previous hosting of the Machakos Negotiations,” said the Sudan government in relation to the South Sudan and Sudan talks which Kenya had successfully hosted years ago.

The Sudan Government said it is “unfortunate that the President of Kenya had placed his personal and commercial interests… above the historical relations between the two brotherly countries…”

Since the war in Sudan burst out, Kenya has been viewed in certain quarters as a biased umpire and these latest developments might have brought the chickens home to roost. Will Kenya still hold its head high as a neutral arbiter in the region when it has been found with its hand in the cookie jar in Sudan?

In light of the foregoing, Sudan recalled its ambassador from Kenya in protest against Nairobi’s hosting of a meeting to discuss the formation of a parallel government.  Sudan earlier accused Kenya’s presidency of “embracing and encouraging a conspiracy” to establish an RSF-led government.

Sudan’s Foreign Ministry stated that Kamal Jabara was summoned “for consultations in response to Kenya’s hosting of meetings involving the Rapid Support Forces ((RSF) militia and its allies, in a hostile move against Sudan.”  

Sudan advised Nairobi to abandon what it called a “dangerous course” that threatens regional peace and security and promotes terrorism and genocide.  

Sudan war escalation

The war in Sudan is still on and the protagonists are still active on various war fronts. However, both sides remain accused of making civilians bear the greatest brunt of the war, through genocidal actions, wanton deaths, displacement, loss of property and other war crimes.

The latest assault was on 18th February 2025, when it was widely reported that the war in Sudan had taken a worrying tangent as the Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) conducted a three-day assault on villages in the White Nile State. Independent observers reported cases of widespread looting and mass executions of civilians,, some reported over 200 deaths while others said they saw at least 400 dead.

As this fresh military onslaught targeting civilians took place, the World Health Organization (WHO) on Thursday called on donors to contribute more to Sudan’s health assistance worth $262.3 million. “Two years of conflict in Sudan have turned the country into an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.

The UN has launched a $6 billion appeal, to support nearly 26 million people," Tedros Ghebreyesus said on X. Stressing that the health needs "remain immense," Tedros said, "We call on donors to invest in humanity by contributing to the $262.3 million sought for health assistance for at least 9.4 million Sudanese."

Sudan History

Sudan is entangled in a civil war currently spanning over twenty-two months since war broke out on 15th April 2023 between the Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudan Defense Forces (SDF). The war is responsible for atrocities of unimaginable scale and a colossal destruction of facilities in Sudan.

An international initiative, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) has been actively recording all aspects of this war says that the Sudan civil war had reported over 28,700 fatalities by the end of November 2024, including over 7,500 civilians killed in direct attacks and this excludes the most recent figures of two days ago.

The sum of reported death is presumed to be a gross underestimation of the war’s actual death toll, which some have put as high as 150,000. This has occasioned the worst displacement crisis in the world as more than half of country’s population of around 50 million people, are in need of humanitarian aid, and over 30% of the population has been displaced.

Almost 2 million Sudanese are refugees in other unstable regions around their country such as Chad, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, overrunning refugee camps there. This, the ACLED indicates, has currently seen Sudan get the 4th highest conflict ranking in the world.

The war in Sudan has been largely ignored by the wider international community, unlike other wars, the Israel-Gaza war and the Russia-Ukraine war.  

However, the United Nations (UN) has kept on pleading for more support in light of the dire humanitarian needs facing the country which it says could soon trigger the “world’s largest hunger crisis.” The World Food Programme, an agency of the UN, has also issued a warning that the “world is running out of time” to arrest the situation.

How it all started

In April 2023, intense artillery and heavy arms fighting broke out between the RSF and Sudan Defense Forces in the capital of Sudan, Khartoum. Many feared it soon became a full-scale war, on all fronts in every part of the country and indeed it unravelled.  

The conflict is primarily a power struggle between the leaders of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and a powerful paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo. They are battling for control of the state and its resources.

General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, having seized power after the popular uprising that toppled former Sudan strongman, Omar-el-Bashir, is the leader of the State of Sudan.

Gen. Abdel Fattah was a collaborator and ally of Mohamed Hamdan in quelling the uprising in Darfur which left the former President Omar al-Bashir and other top Sudanese officials facing charges of genocide and crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court.

At that moment in time, al-Burhan was the regional commander for the Darfur region when the atrocities were committed. But neither he nor Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, head of the RSF and his present arch-rival, who helped crush the Darfuri uprising been indicted by the ICC.  

Gen Burhani has, however, distanced himself from the atrocities committed in Darfur where the Sudan Army backed by the RSF, crushed a rebellion in a conflict that killed some 300,000 people and displaced another 2.7 million.

In 1956 as the Republic of Sudan gained independence as a sprawling country spanning well over a million square miles, but this was not its immediate problem; the wealthier northern Sudan, inhabited by Arab Muslims stood against and in direct contrast to the south, with black African Christian or animist citizens.

Immediately, the inequalities and domineering power from the north sparked off a civil war which resulted in the country being split into two states in 2011; namely the Republic of Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan.

Strongman Bashir’s 30-year rule

Apart from the debilitating civil war, Sudan’s post-colonial era is also smeared by the dictatorial rule of Omar al-Bashir, a career soldier, following a coup.

In 1989 Bashir seized power and in his 30-year rule oversaw most of the civil war with the south, the secession of South Sudan, and another bruising civil war in the Darfur region, where a local militia called the “Janjaweed,” together with government soldiers committed atrocities in a bid to suppress and subdue the secessionist Darfur.

The Janjaweed are the group which later transformed into a modern fighting militia and renamed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The Darfur war which broke out in 2003 took the world by surprise in its intensity and atrocities would later be condemned by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the United States as genocide against non-Arab populations in Sudan, such as the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa ethnic groups.

Sudan’s strongman Bashir was not only oppressive, but he imposed Sharia law on the whole country and used private militias to fight his battles, such as the case in Darfur. He employed “morality police” to enforce his strict Islamic decrees and was well known for persecuting Christians, and Sunni Muslims, among others.

Bashir’s end came via a popular uprising calling for better governance in 2019 which orchestrated a coup led by the Sudan Defense Forces, under the leadership of Gen. Abdel Fatah Al-Burhan and the RSF, the militia led by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo.

RSF’s Dagalo would be best remembered for the string of barbaric attacks he carried out on behalf of the Bashir administration in the southern parts of Sudan and specifically against the Dafuris where over 200,000 lives were lost, occasioning mass internal displacement of populations, rape, kidnappings among others atrocities.

RSF leader Dagalo overnight joined Sudan’s super-rich club by seizing control of gold mines in places where they fought on behalf of the government. The RSF was used to protect Bashir and ensure his stay in power but ultimately betrayed him by participating in the coup that took him away from power in 2019.

Mass uprising and Gen Burhan climb to the top

Gen Burhan from the Sudan Defense Forces (SDF) took advantage of the popular mass uprising of citizens to seize power and declare a transitional council to run the country in the interim.

He proceeded to work closely with RSF’s Dagalo to establish a transitional government as well as create a roadmap to a new constitution post-2019.

Burhan led the Transitional Sovereignty Council with Dagalo as his deputy which, also included other military leaders and several civilians.

Within the council were civilian members chosen for their expertise and experience. The one chosen to be Prime Minister was Abdalla Hamdok.

Hamdok is an economist and development expert of repute who spent his energy while in office to stabilize Sudan’s tottering economy until his arrest and removal from office by Gen Burhan and Dagalo who also suspended the Sudan constitution.

But the citizens would have none of the military posturing at leadership and mass riots began once more demanding a return to civilian rule. Prime Minister Hamdok was reinstated in 2021 but only after he ceded certain powers to the men in uniform, this further displeased the masses who came out again to demonstrate in large numbers.

Prime Minister Hamdok resigned in 2022 when it became clear it was impossible to carry out his duties efectively including protecting the protestors. After Hamdok’s resignation, Sudan has had no clear leadership with Gen Burhan operating as the de-facto head of State and Dagalo of RSF operating like his principal assistant in trying to map out the future of Sudan. With almost 3 coups within a span of 4 years in Sudan.

It has also become increasingly difficult to talk of a legitimate government in Sudan as legitimacy is given via the people’s vote and who can recall the last time the people of Sudan held an election?

Transition to civilian rule and powers for the military

Protracted negotiations in 2022 over Sudan’s future resulted in a 2022 December deal that gave a framework for a two-year transition to civilian leadership and national elections. 

The opposition and civil society in Sudan, however, rejected not only the transition time frame of two-years but also the fact that the defense forces would retain some state powers as well. They wanted Gen Burhan, Dagalo and other senior security officials held accountable for atrocities committed in Sudan over the years.

In the deal they had brokered, Sudan’s transitional government was still led by Gen Burhan but it had raised Dagalo to his equal, not his deputy as before.

The deal also called for the absorption of the RSF into the Sudan Defense Forces and ultimately placed all security forces under the direction and command of civilian leadership. RSF and SDF could not agree on timelines for the absorption of the RSF into the SDF.

Secondly, none of them looked comfortable being under a civilian administration. Unrest broke when Gen Burhan and Dagalo missed a deadline in early 2023 to determine conditions for the agreement’s implementation.

As timelines began expiring one after the other, it was apparent there was a power struggle between Gen Burhan and Dagalo. In April 2023 Dagalo’s RSF forces poured out into the streets of Khartoum and the SDF also lined out its soldiers at every key installation throughout the country.

Inevitably, the first shots rang out, and another war had begun. Each side accused the other of orchestrating the war and this was not made easy by the fact that external groups were involved including mercenaries such as the Wagner Group and military assistance (hardware) sent in by the United Arab Emirates.

The war has destroyed many parts of Khartoum and the entire country, occasioned the evacuation of all foreign nationals and interests and stopped all essential facilities from operating, such as water and electricity, in most parts of the country.

Faltering Peace attempts

In May 2023, SDF abandoned peace talks sponsored by the United States and Saudi Arabia, Gen Burhan subsequently expelled the UN representative to Sudan, Volker Perthes. The RSF and SDF, after immense pressure agreed to resume peace talks in late 2023 but neither side has agreed to a cease-fire as negotiations commenced.

The two sides refused to allow civility in negotiations and facilitation of humanitarian assistance. Fighting rages on many fronts in the country but with more intensity in and around Khartoum and in Darfur.

Khamis Abakar, governor of Darfur, was killed in June 2023, most likely by the RSF, after he voiced concern over RSF’s renewal of genocidal attacks on civilian villages in Darfur. Later the SDF delinked from attempts at negotiation via the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a regional bloc which sought to establish an alternative forum for mediation.

On 8th March 2024, the UN Security Council (UNSC) issued a resolution urging a speedy cessation of violence in Sudan. Days later, SDF obliged to indirect contact with the RSF mediated by Libya and Turkey but could still not agree on details of a cease-fire.

The SDF, having lost the capital city of Khartoum to the RSF have been making advances towards the city and are hopeful of routing out the RSF supported by armed drones procured from Iran.

Many international analysts believe the war in Sudan has not been accorded the necessary attention and resources towards a speedy resolution and that this conflict could quickly become a more factionalized and regional war which could take many more resources to quell.

Many international NGOs have documented evidence of mass atrocities on many war fronts during this conflict that borders on ethnic cleansing and war crimes. A statement by the UN in January indicated that between 10,000 and 15,000 people had been killed in 2024 due to ethnic violence by the RSF and its allies in West Darfur. Time is running is surely running out for Sudan and the situation is dire!