Mukhisa Kituyi explains voting dynamics in AUC poll, obstacles in Raila's bid

According to Kituyi, preceding voting patterns will favor Odinga's contenders due to the voting bloc dynamics.

He intimated that good campaigning, which Odinga has boldly pursued, does not guarantee victory.

Kituyi believes that the French-speaking nations, owing to his experience as the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Secretary General, always vote in unison.

"Normally it is extremely difficult for the bloc to vote for a non-francophone speaker if there is a French speaker among the candidates," Kituyi said speaking on NTV.

He added that Odinga may be shorthanded because Djibouti's Mohamoud Youssouf, who is also seeking the position, is a French-speaking candidate and the bloc will cast its vote in his favor.

Kituyi added that President William Ruto's move to support Israel during the invasion of Gaza is also one that might dent Odinga's prospects.

He noted that Muslim states, which take a fairly huge share of African States, could cast their vote for a different candidate.

"That means that Ruto does not become an asset. The main alternative to Raila is a Muslim who speaks French," he opined.

Kituyi added that votes from the Anglophone bloc are also not a guarantee for Odinga since there is a split on Madagascar's Richard Randriamandrato candidacy.

Odinga, Randriamandrato and Youssouf will be seeking to succeed Chad's Moussa Faki who will exit after his two-term tenure which started in 2017.

The electoral process is set to begin on February 12 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia where the Executive Council will elect and appoint Commissioners during their session on February 12-13, 2025.

A winner will be declared when a two-thirds majority of Heads of State from the 55 AU member states vote in their favour.

Meanwhile Odinga, with President Ruto's help, has rallied other leaders to deliver victory for the former premier. 

An analysis of their past diplomatic tours reveals that 19 African heads of state have pledged their support for Odinga.

These include Kenya, Togo, Gambia, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Malawi. 

Others include Tanzania, Uganda, Seychelles, Mauritius, Rwanda, Burundi, Algeria, South Sudan and Eritrea.