Inside Raila’s Political Future: Kingmaker or Contender?

As analysts assess his potential moves, one pressing question is whether the political camaraderie between him and President William Ruto has reached its expiry.

Close associates of Odinga argue that he is a master of political reinvention, capable of navigating even the most challenging political landscapes. 

Some leaders, including Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, have also signaled an openness to closer ties with Odinga. But what are his options moving forward?

With his AUC bid now concluded, speculation is mounting about his next move. While critics argue that it might be time for him to retire, his supporters insist that he still wields significant political influence and could play the role of kingmaker in the 2027 elections.

Political analyst Martin Oloo suggests that Odinga has several paths available.

“The first option he has is to join a broad-based government and become a key principal in that administration since he has already positioned his allies there. That is a plausible option for him. The other option is to take a step back and transition into the role of a private citizen, but I highly doubt he will choose that path,” said Oloo.

Political allies close to Odinga maintain that he has an extraordinary ability to reinvent himself, often creating new political narratives even after facing setbacks.

The current political discourse is divided—some argue that Odinga should run for president in 2027, while others believe he should align with President Ruto to form a formidable alliance.

“He is already aligned with Kenya Kwanza in some ways. They will likely sit down and negotiate a deal, and the majority in Parliament will still be a mix of Kenya Kwanza and Azimio,” Oloo added.

The future of Odinga’s relationship with Ruto remains uncertain, especially with ongoing disputes in Parliament over the majority party status between Azimio and Kenya Kwanza.

The firm stance of the Speaker of the National Assembly has further complicated the situation, and analysts suggest it could have long-term political repercussions.

“This issue of the parliamentary majority is a red herring. Eventually, they will sit down and make a deal—the real question is, who will be the casualties? As you can see, the knives are out for Moses Wetang’ula,” Oloo noted.

Should Odinga choose to back President Ruto, analysts suggest he would likely negotiate for key positions for his allies in a broader, more inclusive government.

Ruto has already demonstrated goodwill by appointing Odinga’s supporters to various government roles. However, this strategy is not universally accepted within the ODM party, leading to internal divisions.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino warned against hasty alignments, saying, “Those rushing to join the government should remember that we just had elections. Baba should know who is truly loyal to him. Those who are loyal will wait for instructions.”

While Odinga’s traditional stronghold in Nyanza has shown signs of warming to Ruto’s visits, a closer alliance with Ruto is not guaranteed, as ODM party leaders have openly expressed their political ambitions.

Deputy ODM party leader Simba Arati emphasized the party’s stance, stating, “We cannot merely walk alongside Kenya Kwanza; we must seize power, whether Raila Odinga wins the AU seat or not.”

Odinga’s position within his own party is being tested as new dynamics emerge in his relationship with Ruto. Meanwhile, political figures such as Rigathi Gachagua have hinted at a charm offensive toward Odinga.

Following Odinga’s loss, Gachagua’s statement reflected a nuanced political position:

"Africa needed you most, but God, in His wisdom, has decided that Kenya, your motherland, and indeed we Kenyans, your beloved brothers and sisters, have unfinished business with you as their coveted son as we unshackle our country from recklessness."

Regardless of whether Odinga decides to maintain his current political standing or realign his strategy, one thing remains clear—he will be a pivotal figure in the 2027 political succession, and his influence will continue to shape Kenya’s political landscape.