Diplomatic Spotlight on Horn of Africa leaves Djibouti’s troubles in the dark

Amid this turmoil, Djibouti recently hosted two high-profile forums to address regional stability and security: the annual three-day dialogue on regional stability organized by the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies and the East Africa Security Forum (EASF), convened under the auspices of the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA).

Yet, despite the critical nature of these discussions, a glaring omission loomed over both events: neither addressed Djibouti’s own deep-seated challenges, including widespread hunger, endemic insecurity, and a lack of democratic governance. This silence raises questions about the priorities of regional and international stakeholders—and the challenges of addressing such issues in a host nation struggling with its own crises.

Djibouti’s Hidden Struggles

Beneath its carefully maintained image of stability lies a country grappling with profound internal issues. Hunger remains a dire concern, exacerbated by prolonged droughts and a heavy dependence on imported food.

According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), between April and June 2024, an estimated 221,000 people—19 % of the population—faced acute food insecurity. The 2024 Global Hunger Index ranked Djibouti 92nd out of 127 countries, with a score indicating a “serious” hunger level.

Poverty compounds these challenges, with 79% of Djiboutians living below the poverty line, including 42% in extreme poverty. High unemployment rates further deepen the humanitarian crisis, leaving many families dependent on aid.

Djibouti’s coastal geography, which positions it as a key hub for international military bases and maritime trade, also invites exploitation. Illegal fishing by foreign fleets, particularly from Yemen and China, is depleting fish stocks and disrupting the livelihoods of local communities. These activities threaten not only the economy but also national security, as they are often linked to organized crime networks engaged in smuggling operations.

Security and Governance: A Fragile Balance

Although Djibouti is a critical partner in regional security, hosting military bases for the United States, China, France, Japan, and Italy, its internal governance remains a source of concern. President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, in power since 1999, has faced allegations of political repression and links to Somalia’s Salaam Bank, which has been accused of ties to al-Shabaab.

Domestically, the government has been criticized for stifling dissent and consolidating power, creating a fragile political climate that fuels discontent. Meanwhile, porous borders and weak law enforcement leave Djibouti vulnerable to spillover effects from regional conflicts, including the influx of refugees and militants from neighboring Ethiopia and Somalia.

Human trafficking also poses a persistent challenge. Djibouti’s strategic location makes it a key transit point for migrants from Somalia and Ethiopia seeking to cross into Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula. Many fall victim to exploitation, forced labor, and abuse at the hands of organized trafficking networks.

The Forums: Focus on the Region, Not the Host

The Heritage Institute’s annual dialogue and the EASF conference centered their discussions on regional crises, from Ethiopia’s civil war to Somalia’s al-Shabaab threat. While these issues are undeniably pressing, the absence of discourse on Djibouti’s internal struggles reveals a troubling pattern.

Djibouti’s strategic importance, particularly to the U.S. and other international actors, often shields it from scrutiny. Hosting military bases and serving as a diplomatic hub allows Djibouti to project an image of stability, even as its internal challenges remain unresolved. Raising sensitive topics like hunger or governance in such forums could jeopardize diplomatic relations, leading organizers to sideline these issues.

The Cost of Silence

By ignoring Djibouti’s domestic crises, these forums risk perpetuating the very conditions that undermine long-term stability in the region. Hunger, poverty, and political repression erode social cohesion and fuel insecurity, not only within Djibouti but also in its neighbors.

International actors, particularly the U.S., bear some responsibility for this oversight. While Djibouti is a vital ally, its entrenched authoritarian practices and lack of transparency hinder economic development and exacerbate inequality. Without meaningful advocacy for reform, these issues remain unaddressed, perpetuating cycles of poverty and governance failures.

Future forums must take a more inclusive approach, addressing the internal challenges of host nations like Djibouti alongside broader regional concerns. Ignoring these issues in the name of diplomacy may offer short-term stability, but it undermines efforts to build resilient, self-reliant societies in the Horn of Africa.