Congo fighting: Rise of Rwanda-backed M23 rebels harder to stop this time

"I pray that God strengthens our soldiers," Nzambonimpa, 54, told Reuters. "My prayer is for M23 to be defeated and leave Goma."

Just hours later, however, in a replay of a 2012 offensive, M23 fighters were marching into eastern Democratic Republic of Congo's largest city, sowing panic among residents and fears the conflict could spill over into a broader regional war.

M23's last occupation of the city was short-lived, and within a year they were a defeated force. This time, things are different.

A reluctance by world powers to take on Rwanda, other global distractions and on-the-ground military realities will complicate efforts to defeat the rebels in Goma and across eastern Congo and allow millions of civilians, like Nzambonimpa, to return to their homes, analysts and diplomats say.

"We have to now be prepared for a large part of Congo not being under central government control for a long period of time," said Jason Stearns, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University specialising in Africa's Great Lakes region.

"The fall of Goma is a game changer."

M23 has made lightning advances over the past month, grabbing territory and expanding its control over North Kivu province's lucrative coltan, gold and tin ore mines in fighting that has worsened one of the world's most dire humanitarian crises.

Well trained and professionally armed, M23 is the latest in a long line of Tutsi-led rebel movements to emerge in Congo's volatile eastern borderlands in the wake of two successive wars stemming from Rwanda's 1994 genocide.

The group says it exists to protect Congo's ethnic Tutsi population. Congo's government says it is a Rwandan proxy.

Rwandan President Paul Kagame's government has long denied supporting M23, despite findings to the contrary by numerous United Nations expert reports.

When the rebels last seized Goma at the high-water mark of a 2012-2013 uprising, it took coordinated international pressure and threats to withdraw aid to force Kagame to cut them off.

A U.N.-mandated African force then helped Congolese forces launch a counter-offensive that led to their surrender.

On Sunday, at an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council, the United States, France and Britain all called out Rwanda's support for M23 but stopped short of concrete action.

"Everyone has pointed the finger at Rwanda by now and it has not moved the needle," said Stephanie Wolters, a Congo analyst with South Africa's Institute for Security Studies. "Kagame hasn't had to face consequences that matter to him yet."

VACUUMS AND DISTRACTIONS

The offensive comes at a time when the world's attention is elsewhere. "The U.S. is looking inwards. Europe is divided. The Middle East is in turmoil. Kagame seized the moment," one Western diplomat told Reuters.

The Rwandan president has traded on his image as a stable partner in a tumultuous region and has spent the last decade charming the nations that could hold him accountable for transgressions in Congo.

He has ingratiated himself with Britain, for example, agreeing to accept asylum-seeking migrants in Rwanda. Even as U.N. investigators documented Rwandan support for M23, Kigali hosted a Commonwealth summit in 2022.

Although Britain's new government has scrapped the migration deal, it says it is keen to maintain close ties, opens new tab.

Sources say France's President Emmanuel Macron is working behind the scenes to calm the situation in eastern Congo and has spoken with both Kagame and Congo's President Felix Tshisekedi.

But Paris is also nurturing relations with Kigali, keen to repair damage from its role during the Rwandan genocide and to bolster its influence across the continent as its authority wanes in its former West African colonies.

Kagame has deployed thousands of Rwandan troops to fight an Islamist insurgency in Mozambique that threatens a major French gas project.

Across the Atlantic, President Donald Trump's return to power has brought unpredictability to Washington's Africa stance.

"A lot of powerful nations are less willing to engage beyond rhetoric," said Christoph Vogel, a Congo analyst and former U.N. investigator. "There's basically no will or political capital to take a stand in the Great Lakes."

FIGHTING IT OUT

On the ground in Congo, U.N. experts say Rwanda has sent thousands of troops into Congo over the past three years, deployed surface-to-air missiles, snipers, armoured vehicles, special forces and GPS jamming equipment. Kigali denies this.

M23 controls all of the territory surrounding Goma, depriving Congolese forces of any launch pad for mounting a counter-offensive to retake the city.

The rebels have also expanded their control over mineral resources, providing both a means of sustaining their insurgency and a motivation for holding territory.

President Tshisekedi has emerged weakened from a flawed 2023 election and his demand to accelerate the withdrawal of a U.N. peacekeeping mission has hurt him in the east. The pullout of the MONUSCO mission is now on hold, but the force is far less robust than it was in 2012.

While a U.N.-mandated brigade from South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi was key to routing M23 in 2013, Congo's neighbours are more reluctant to get involved militarily this time, say analysts.

Instead, African leaders, spearheaded by Kenya's President William Ruto, are scrambling to launch diplomatic efforts to end the fighting.

"There's always a way out if people talk and bring a willingness to compromise," said Vogel. "But right now, we're in a situation where Kinshasa and Kigali seem intent on fighting this out."