Raila to beat DP Ruto in a two-horse, Moses Kuria now says
Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria has now projected an ODM leader Raila Odinga win in the 2022 State House race.
Raila would receive 8.129,000 votes, or 52.28 percent, according to multiple permutations based on electoral statistics recorded from 1992, according to Kuria.
On the other hand, the deputy president would lag Raila with 7,420,000 votes, or 47.72 percent of the total votes cast.
According to the outspoken lawmaker, who claims to have served as the chief data analyst for the last four polls, his predictions have come true, including the recent polls in Gaturi, Murang'a and Juja where his party won.
“I meant very few people could tie my shoes laces when it comes to data analysis," Kuria told Citizen TV.
He claims to have won the last of his recent polls in Juja and Gaturi by crunching the numbers and understanding where to improve on.
“I’m very loyal to numbers… even those elections that I have won, I have won them because of fidelity to data," said Kuria.
The MP says the secret to winning seats lies in the science of data which in Kenya, is determined by 11 distinct demographics.
According to Kuria, regardless of the existing and ongoing quest for National Unity, there exists certain blocks in Kenya, like ethnicity, that ultimately affect voting patterns.
The MP says that having collated data over the years, science has validated to him that his theory on demographic zones works.
"Take the mount Kenya region for example, they have a tendency of voting the same way, look at Luo Nyanza, they have the tendency to vote the same way," Kuria said.
“One you validate that those clusters work, then I use technology, mobile phones to conduct opinion polls, based now on that cluster,”
On Uhuru Kenyatta's succession, Kuria says there are two likely scenarios that may play out: a four-horse, and a two-horse race.
"If you ask me, realistically, and I could be wrong, there are four potential presidents in this country Raila Odinga, DP Ruto, Kalonzo Musyoka or Musalia Mudavadi," Kuria said.
According to Kuria, the four horsemen are the only ones who stand any realistic chance of clinching the top job in 2022.
Kuria says that in the case where all the four candidates decide to run for presidency, none will get the 50 plus one vote required.
“Kalonzo would eat from Raila Odinga, Musalia would eat largely from Raila Odinga,” Kuria said
The legislator says in a four-horse race, DP Ruto would be ahead of the pack, but would still not get the required 50 plus one vote needed for a first-rounder win.
“So Willian Ruto would be ahead of the park, he would be the leader but without the 50 plus one vote required to win in the first round,”
Kuria also adressed the proverbial Central Kenya political mountain, that politicians have been jostling to scale.
According to data from Kuria's poll, DP Ruto gets the largest piece of cake in Central Kenya with 70 percent of the total votes cast.
Raila on the other hand, would get not more than 30 percent of the votes cast in the region.
"No matter how hard he tries, I do not see Raila Odinga getting more than 30 percent of the Mt Kenya vote," Kuria added.
He however argues that the 30 percent of Central Kenya vote is more than any that Raila has ever received from the region.