OPINION: Why Africa can benefit from Donald Trump’s triumph

Donald Trump’s electoral triumph in the 2024 election sent reverberations across the US and far beyond. His triumph was not only emphatic because Republicans won back the US Senate but also because Trump won the popular vote. A resounding mandate from the electorate to his Make America Great Again, Again or MAGA 2.0.

In Africa, the public kept a close track of the US elections wondering what the benefits of another Trump Administration would be for the continent. His expletive language referring to the countries on the continent raised added anxiety.

In addition to this, the African Union had cultivated particularly close relations with the Biden Administration, leading to the US supporting a non-veto permanent seat on the Security Council for Africa. That said, Trump’s Triumph can still benefit Africa. 

Trump is a transactional leader whose foreign policy centres on an American-first premise. In this regard, Africa needs to align its foreign policy strategy in a manner that benefits from bandwagoning with the United States.

In diplomatic terms, the African Union should reinforce historic diplomatic relations with the US, especially in international organizations like the United Nations, where the continent has a majority of members in the General Assembly.

In addition to this, African nations on the BRICS forum can soften the stance of the forum from being anti-American/anti-West to being pro-Global South nations. Not aligning with the West of the Axis of the Aggrieved in the shape of the West's opponents in China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and Venezuela.

Providing a voice to the developing nations of the African continent in the international arena that works within liberal global norms of behaviour among the international community of states.

Trump has established a foreign policy that is neo-isolationist, suspicious of global governance and institutions but cognizant of the limits of American power. In this regard, while the US will be looking to be more introverted in its foreign policy, it will still need to maintain and advance its interests in trade.

The US is concerned about its overreliance on China for trade and is looking to decouple from that country. In addition to this, the US is also looking to diversify its global supply chains with new markets for its exports.

Africa’s drive to expand digital equity and digital access under the Biden Administration-led Partnership for Digital Access in Africa is a transactional avenue Africa can use to leverage its utility value to the Trump Administration, especially the Women in Digital Economy Fund of the Partnership for Digital Access in Africa.

American investment into Africa in high technology, Artificial Intelligence (AI), expansion of US-driven fibre optic networks, Starlink-led satellite propulsion and space technology, can set the continent up as a hub for innovation, space exploration and internet-based broadband goods and service delivery.

AGOA is up for renewal in 2025. Under Trump, stiff penalties will accrue for countries that do not allow for US access of American goods into their markets, even as duty-free access is provided to African nations.

The tragedy for AGOA, is that only a few African countries are actually able to benefit from access to the huge American market. According to the Brookings Institute, only 19 of the 32 beneficiary countries have utilization strategies for AGOA.

The 19 countries that have National AGOA Strategies, need to be revise these to cater to the realities of Trump’s economic nationalist agenda that is very America-centric. Kenya for instance is third ($7.3 billion) on the list of AGOA beneficiary countries with the highest total value of non-crude exports over the life of the program.

This is behind South Africa ($55.9 billion) and Nigeria ($11.2 billion). There is a need for the AU to devise structures to spread the benefits of AGOA duty free access to the US market to more of the 54 countries on the continent.

Africa’s textile and apparel exports to the US can increase fivefold if the right investment and export structures are put in place.

Lastly, Africa will need to realign its foreign policy objectives with the Trump Administration to accommodate the new foreign policy focus from Washington. In this regard, Trump’s Prosper Africa Initiative centres on increasing the two-way trade and investment between the US and African countries.

With the foundations of trade between Washington and Africa already established via historic warm relations between the two continents, the daily flights by Egypt Air, Ethiopian Airlines, Kenya Airways and Air Maroc can expand the two-way trade is a natural outgrowth of Africa realigning with the US.

The key with this strategic shift for Africa in the Trump-sphere is to offer the Trump Administration a deal it cannot turn back. An opportunity that provides material, technological, business, innovation and human capital development benefits for both the AU and Washington.

Time will tell how well Africa will utilize Trump’s Triumph to its advantage. Can Africa master the art of this Trump deal?

The author, Professor David Monda, teaches political science, international relations, and foreign policy at the City University of New York. @Mondaprof, davidmonda.com